ほいよ (>>78より) 英語不得意科目だねww(^^; ”The probabilistic reasoning depends on a conglomerability assumption・・ But we have no reason to think the event of guessing correctly is measurable with respect to the probability measure induced by the random choice of sequence and index i, and we have no reason to think that the conglomerability assumption is appropriate.” https://mathoverflow.net/questions/151286/probabilities-in-a-riddle-involving-axiom-of-choice Probabilities in a riddle involving axiom of choice Dec 9 '13 (抜粋) (Alexander Pruss氏) <12> (抜粋) The probabilistic reasoning depends on a conglomerability assumption・・ But we have no reason to think the event of guessing correctly is measurable with respect to the probability measure induced by the random choice of sequence and index i, and we have no reason to think that the conglomerability assumption is appropriate. A quick way to see that the conglomerability assumption is going to be dubious is to consider the analogy of the Brown-Freiling argument against the Continuum Hypothesis (see here for a discussion). http://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/3/3/6360687132人目の素数さん2019/08/13(火) 19:28:42.56ID:Ye8Ed/r+ インターネットなので数学については正しくないかも しれない情報を含んでいると思われるが利用に関して は自己責任でお願いしたい。こちらも極力正確性は高 めるし高めてきたつもりだが俺も人間なので間違える ことがある。参考にする程度にしてほしい。利用して 何かを被ったとしても俺は責任を取れない。 0688132人目の素数さん2019/08/13(火) 20:04:52.43ID:xrcNKYkY>>686 >ほいよ
(>>692)【必死のパッチ】やなww(^^; まず、表題が”Probabilities in a riddle involving axiom of choice”w 次に、下記The Modificationが、時枝記事に相当する部分で ”I think it is ok, because the only probability measure we need is uniform probability on {0,1,…,N?1}, ”が、「おサルの確率論」だけどw 数学DR Pruss氏に木っ端みじんに論破されましたとさww(^^; (>>78ご参照)
https://mathoverflow.net/questions/151286/probabilities-in-a-riddle-involving-axiom-of-choice Probabilities in a riddle involving axiom of choice asked Dec 9 '13 at 16:16 Denis (抜粋) The Modification: I would find the riddle even more puzzling if instead of 100 mathematicians, there was just one, who has to open the boxes he wants and then guess the content of a closed box. He can choose randomly a number i between 0 and 99, and play the role of mathematician number i. In fact, he can first choose any bound N instead of 100, and then play the game, with only probability 1/N to be wrong. In this context, does it make sense to say "guess the content of a box with arbitrarily high probability"? I think it is ok, because the only probability measure we need is uniform probability on {0,1,…,N?1}, but other people argue it's not ok, because we would need to define a measure on sequences, and moreover axiom of choice messes everything up. 0712132人目の素数さん2019/08/13(火) 23:54:02.99ID:92BVRh33>>668 おまえがアホには同意しますよw(^^; 0713132人目の素数さん2019/08/13(火) 23:55:59.91ID:92BVRh33>>669 時枝解法の確率変数を書くこともできないバカが何を言っても無駄(^^ 0714現代数学の系譜 雑談 古典ガロア理論も読む ◆e.a0E5TtKE 2019/08/13(火) 23:57:51.30ID:KPMDnjHM>>710 分ってますよ あなた、最近言わないけど 「固定〜〜!!」でしたねw(^^ おサルさん 「固定」ww
スレ主がコピペしたPrussの発言に対しPrussとDenisが議論をしている。その中で、Prussは「勝率99/100以上」を認めてるよ(^^; For each fixed opponent strategy, if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy (where the "independently" here isn't in the probabilistic sense), we win with probability at least (n−1)/n. That's right.
但しプレーヤー2が選択する列をプレーヤー1が予想できたなら、プレーヤー2に勝たせないように数列を選択できるという屁理屈を捏ねている(^^; But the opponent can win by foreseeing what which value of i we're going to choose and which choice of representatives we'll make. I suppose we would ban foresight of i?
Denisがそれを論破したところで議論が終わっている(^^; yes the order would be: 1)describe the probabilistic strategy 2)opponent choses a sequence 3)probabilistic variable i is instanciated
スレ主は英語でも落ちこぼれたようだね(^^; 0719132人目の素数さん2019/08/14(水) 03:11:16.61ID:MPteNw3f >プレーヤー2に勝たせないように数列を選択できる プレーヤー2に勝たせないような数列を出題できる って意味ね、分かると思うが 0720132人目の素数さん2019/08/14(水) 05:55:13.30ID:c6g6R1pg>>711 >…need to define a measure on sequences
大阪の工業高校卒とか、すっげぇアタマ悪そうw 0722132人目の素数さん2019/08/14(水) 06:27:44.68ID:c6g6R1pg>>718 "For each fixed opponent strategy, if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy (where the "independently" here isn't in the probabilistic sense), we win with probability at least (n−1)/n. That's right. "
"But the opponent can win by foreseeing what which value of i we're going to choose and which choice of representatives we'll make. I suppose we would ban foresight of i? "
(参考: どうも英語圏では2013年から、日本語圏では2015年から文献があるけどね。面白くないんだ、人間だからね(^^) http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart/puzzle/choice.pdf Choice Games Sergiu HART The Hebrew University of Jerusalem November 4, 2013 (A similar result, but now without using the Axiom of Choice.2 Consider the following two-person game game2:)
そのためもっと非自明なアイデアが必要なのであるが,それを説明する前に層を 圏論的な言葉で解釈しておこう.位相空間 X に対し,圏 OpenX を次のような圏 とする: ・ 対象は X の開集合. ・ V , U を X の開集合とするとき,V から U への射は包含写像 V ,?→ U. (Vが U に含まれるなら射は唯一,そうでないなら射はない.) このとき,X 上の前層は OpenX から Ab への反変関手に他ならず,前層の間の射 とは反変関手間の射に他ならない.前層が層になるための条件について考えよう.
定義 1.6 連続写像 f : Y ?→ X が局所同相であるとは,任意の y ∈ Y に対し y の開近傍 V , f(y) ∈ X の開近傍 U が存在して,f が V から U への同相写像を誘導すること をいう. 圏 LIsomX を次のように定める: ・ 対象は局所同相な連続写像 f : Y ?→ X(誤解のないときには単に Y とも表す). ・ f : Y ?→ X から f′: Y′ ?→ X への射は,連続写像 g : Y ?→ Y′ で f′?g = f を満たすもの. LIsomX における射の族 (gi: Yi ?→ Y )i∈I(Y , Yi は LIsomX の対象)が被覆で あるとは,Y =∪i∈Ig(Yi) となることをいう.
<Prussのmathoverflowでの発言について> (サルの>>718>>722より) (引用開始) スレ主がコピペしたPrussの発言に対しPrussとDenisが議論をしている。その中で、Prussは「勝率99/100以上」を認めてるよ(^^; For each fixed opponent strategy, if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy (where the "independently" here isn't in the probabilistic sense), we win with probability at least (n−1)/n. That's right.
あほサルの勝手読み Pruss氏の発言のその後があるだろう? ”That's right. But now the question is whether we can translate this to a statement without the conditional "For each fixed opponent strategy". ? Alexander Pruss Dec 19 '13 at 15:05 ”と 要するに、力点は、But以下の文にあるってことと 前文の”if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy”の部分が未証明だってことよw
https://books.google.co.jp/books?id=RXBoDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA77&lpg=PA77&dq=%22conglomerability%22+assumption+math&source=bl&ots=8Ol1uFrjJQ&sig=ACfU3U1bAurNGJm5872wDblskzsSgsU0iA&hl=ja&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwioiPyV_IPiAhXHxrwKHUeaArUQ6AEwCXoECEoQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22conglomerability%22%20assumption%20math&f=false Infinity, Causation, and Paradox 著者: Alexander R. Pruss Oxford University Press, 2018 P75 (抜粋) 2.5.3 COUNTABLE ADDITITVITY AND CONGLOMERABILITY (引用終り) 以上 0775132人目の素数さん2019/08/14(水) 14:21:44.78ID:MPteNw3f>>773 >前文の”if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy”の部分が未証明だってことよw おまえ中身なんにも分からずに接続詞が醸し出す雰囲気だけで言ってるだろw おまえは 「ランダム選択される i を事前に予想できないことが未証明」 って言ってるんだよw バカですか?w そんでなんで俺がおまえの発言内容をおまえに説明してやらにゃあかんの?w バカ過ぎて話にならないw
>Denisが、確率論が分かってないし、本を書くネタをmathoverflowで書くには余白と時間が限られているってことよ おまえの妄想に過ぎないw 証拠がひとつも無いw おまえすぐ妄想語るなw それ治療してもらえよw 0776132人目の素数さん2019/08/14(水) 14:22:19.83ID:c6g6R1pg>>773 ”But now the question is whether we can translate this to a statement without the conditional "For each fixed opponent strategy””
>>775 ”if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy” のindex iについてww
これ下記の”Alexander Pruss Dec 19 '13 at 15:05 ”の抜粋なw 以下の応答を嫁めw(^^
要するに、力点は、But以下の文にあるってことと 前文の”if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy”の部分が未証明だってことよw
(参考) https://mathoverflow.net/questions/151286/probabilities-in-a-riddle-involving-axiom-of-choice Probabilities in a riddle involving axiom of choice Dec 9 '13 (抜粋) sked Dec 9 '13 at 16:16 Denis The Modification I think it is ok, because the only probability measure we need is uniform probability on {0,1,…,N-1}, but other people argue it's not ok, because we would need to define a measure on sequences, and moreover axiom of choice messes everything up. a
answered Dec 11 '13 at 21:07 Alexander Pruss Let's go back to the riddle. Suppose u ̄ is chosen randomly. The most natural option is that it is a nontrivial i.i.d. sequence (uk), independent of the random index i which is uniformly distributed over [100]={0,...,99}. In general, Mj will be nonmeasurable (one can prove this in at least some cases). We likewise have no reason to think that M is measurable. But without measurability, we can't make sense of talk of the probability that the guess will be correct.
Denis Dec 17 '13 at 15:21 Our choice of index i is made randomly, but for this we only need the uniform distribution on {0,…,n}. It is made independently of the opponent's choice.