>Ray Kurzweil predicted Friday that universal basic income, a controversial notion today, will be common throughout the developed world by the early 2030s and globally by the end of that decade.
>The expectation is that computers will pass the Turing test, meaning that computers will be able to think like a human, by 2029 and at that point computers actually will do everything that humans can do far better than any human. 0704オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 16:19:47.50ID:1+TIcr1Z>>698 いいじゃん 事故バンバンやって人がガンガン死にまくればいい 黎明期の飛行機やロケットがそうであったように必要な犠牲だ 斯くのごとく技術は進んでゆく 0705オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 16:20:44.76ID:6ezzi+FU>>703は誤り ※3と※4が逆だった。
>The expectation is that computers will pass the Turing test, meaning that computers will be able to think like a human, by 2029 and at that point computers actually will do everything that humans can do far better than any human.
>Ray Kurzweil predicted Friday that universal basic income, a controversial notion today, will be common throughout the developed world by the early 2030s and globally by the end of that decade. 0706オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 16:28:20.79ID:N4aa0i4d>>702 以前改行君も限界費用ゼロ社会を否定してたけど物やサービスが無料になることは無いってよ 生産性の問題じゃなくて経済的な問題らしい 0707オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 16:33:37.27ID:nEZBc7K2 極端な熱狂者とアンチが増えたから火消ししたいだけなのかも
2045年 シンギュラリティ 0716オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 19:09:17.49ID:m8Z17cMS ソース: *1 https://youtu.be/OjZdVUdd3xI *2 https://www.societyforscience.org/blog/conversations-with-maya-ray-kurzweil/ >The expectation is that computers will pass the Turing test, meaning that computers will be able to think like a human, by 2029 and at that point computers actually will do everything that humans can do far better than any human. >By the early 2030s, I believe we’ll be able to integrate our neocortex to the cloud, which will have advanced AI. And we’ll be able to actually take advantage of that. *3 https://www.axios.com/ray-kurzweil-universal-basic-income-will-arrive-in-the-2030s-1523655832-0dde8230-5156-4edf-b444-2db146dfa62c.html >Ray Kurzweil predicted Friday that universal basic income, a controversial notion today, will be common throughout the developed world by the early 2030s and globally by the end of that decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil *4>By 2027, accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will exist. *5>By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality. *6>The nano-bots will take up positions in close physical proximity to each interneuronal connection coming from each physical sense and cause the firing of neurons to result in full-immersion virtual reality, similar to the way psychedelic drugs alter consciousness. The nano-bots will also allow people to "connect their neocortex to the cloud". *7>Mind uploading�becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based. 0717オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 20:07:33.09ID:6ezzi+FU 完成(^^)テンプレで使えると思う それかwikiに記載してほしいな↓ 0718オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 20:07:40.51ID:6ezzi+FU カーツワイル予言年表 ver.3 2020.11.01 2020年代 全てがほぼ無料で手に入る*1 2023年 1000ドルのPCが人並みの知能に*4 2027年 正確な全脳シミュレーションが可能になる*5 2029年 ASI実現*2 new2019年情報! 2020年代後半 VRが現実世界と区別不能に*6 2030年代 ナノロボットを脳に挿入し、マトリックスのような世界が実現*7 脳をクラウドに接続でき、直接ASIを利用できる*2 UBI実現*3 new2020年情報! 2030年代後半 マインドアップローディング成功*8 2045年 シンギュラリティ 1000ドルのPCが全人類の総知能の10億倍に*9 0719オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 20:12:13.87ID:6ezzi+FU ソース: /OjZdVUdd3xI ←https://youtubeを加える *1 0:52- >(前述に詳細)* few penny per pound https://www.societyforscience.org/blog/conversations-with-maya-ray-kurzweil/ *2>The expectation is that computers will pass the Turing test, meaning that computers will be able to think like a human, by 2029 and at that point computers actually will do everything that humans can do far better than any human. >By the early 2030s, I believe we’ll be able to integrate our neocortex to the cloud, which will have advanced AI. And we’ll be able to actually take advantage of that. https://www.axios.com/ray-kurzweil-universal-basic-income-will-arrive-in-the-2030s-1523655832-0dde8230-5156-4edf-b444-2db146dfa62c.html *3>Ray Kurzweil predicted Friday that universal basic income, a controversial notion today, will be common throughout the developed world by the early 2030s and globally by the end of that decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil *410^16�calculations per second�roughly the equivalent of one human brain�will cost $1,000. *5>By 2027, accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will exist. *6>By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality. *7>The nano-bots will take up positions in close physical proximity to each interneuronal connection coming from each physical sense and cause the firing of neurons to result in full-immersion virtual reality, similar to the way psychedelic drugs alter consciousness. The nano-bots will also allow people to "connect their neocortex to the cloud". *8>Mind uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based. *9>$1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. 0720オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 20:48:40.89ID:bh934BSB 2029年にASI？ AGIじゃなくて？ 0721オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 20:55:53.93ID:CmXF65yh>>720 そうだよ。カーツワイルの発言と、定義を比べて見てもAGIじゃなくASIに該当する。
by 2029 and at that point computers actually will do everything that humans can(人間のできる全てのことにおいて) do far better(はるかに上回る) than any human(どんな人間より). 0722オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:02:52.07ID:Tsa+a1yG 霊長類レベルのAIが登場するのはいつなんすかね・・・ 0723オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:03:08.62ID:CmXF65yh つまり、AGIはチューリングテストを合格した年なんだろうけど、それが2029年なのか、または2029年より早いのかはここからは読み取れない
ひとつ推測できるのは、AGIの実現は当初の予想の2029年より早まる可能性があるということ 0724オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:05:26.78ID:CmXF65yh 厳密に言うとASIは遅くとも(by)2029年。 AGIはもちろんASIより早いか、同じ年ということ。 霊長類はもっと早いんじゃないかな？ 0725オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:09:24.50ID:CmXF65yh 訳を厳密化した。↓ ソースも手直し。 0726オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:09:41.00ID:CmXF65yh カーツワイル予言年表 /2020.11.01 ver. 2020年代 全てがほぼ無料で手に入る*1 2023年 1000ドルのPCが人並みの知能に*4 2027年 この年までに正確な全脳シミュレーションが可能になる*5 2029年 この年までにASI実現*2 new2019年情報! 2020年代後半 VRが現実世界と区別不能に*6 2030年代 ナノロボットを脳に挿入し、 マトリックスのような世界が実現*7 脳をクラウドに接続でき、直接ASIを利用できる*2 UBI実現*3 new2020年情報! 2030年代後半 マインドアップローディング成功*8 2045年 シンギュラリティ 1000ドルのPCが全人類の総知能の10億倍に*9 0727オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:10:38.43ID:CmXF65yh ソース: /OjZdVUdd3xI 左にhttps://youtu.beを加える *1 0:52- >(前述に詳細)* few penny per pound https://www.societyforscience.org/blog/conversations-with-maya-ray-kurzweil/ *2>The expectation is that computers will pass the Turing test, meaning that computers will be able to think like a human, by 2029 and at that point computers actually will do everything that humans can do far better than any human. >By the early 2030s, I believe we’ll be able to integrate our neocortex to the cloud, which will have advanced AI. And we’ll be able to actually take advantage of that. https://www.axios.com/ray-kurzweil-universal-basic-income-will-arrive-in-the-2030s-1523655832-0dde8230-5156-4edf-b444-2db146dfa62c.html *3>Ray Kurzweil predicted Friday that universal basic income, a controversial notion today, will be common throughout the developed world by the early 2030s and globally by the end of that decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil *4>10^16 calculations per second--roughly the equivalent of one human brain--will cost $1,000. *5>By 2027, accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will exist. *6>By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality. *7>The nano-bots will take up positions in close physical proximity to each interneuronal connection coming from each physical sense and cause the firing of neurons to result in full-immersion virtual reality, similar to the way psychedelic drugs alter consciousness. The nano-bots will also allow people to "connect their neocortex to the cloud". *8>Mind uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based. *9>$1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. 0728オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:16:52.59ID:CmXF65yh なんどもすまんな。 このテンプレは俺が更新していいタイミングで貼る。 ブームが冷めた中でシンギュラリティを盛り上げようかという意図がある。 0729オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 21:33:30.38ID:N4aa0i4d>>713 俺は自動運転推進派だが？ もちろん「安全」な自動運転のな
>Frontier supercomputer was slated for delivery to Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 2021. 0740オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 22:53:02.56ID:CmXF65yh ていうか、中国のエクサスパコンは音信不通らしいし2020は無理そうだな。 下手したらFrontierは世界初になる 0741オーバーテクナナシー2020/11/01(日) 23:02:48.51ID:CmXF65yh 誤植も修正し、訳もさらに改良、完成した。 ソース追加 *10 https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%B6%85%E7%9F%A5%E8%83%BD
